Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Demographic Time Bomb in Pictures and Dollar Amounts; Ratio of Social Security Beneficiaries to Private Employment Now Exceeds 50%
• Car Maker Peugeot to Cut 8,000 Jobs, Close Plant; Shape of Things to Come
• Mish on Capital Account: "Time for Krugman to Leave Ivory Tower for Real World"

Demographic Time Bomb in Pictures and Dollar Amounts; Ratio of Social Security Beneficiaries to Private Employment Now Exceeds 50% Posted: 12 Jul 2012 01:04 PM PDT Here is a chart from reader Tim Wallace showing social security and disability stats for June of 2012 compared to June in prior years. click on chart for sharper image Chart shows those receiving benefits. Those not in the labor force claiming a disability is much higher. Not in Labor Force - With a Disability, 16 Years and Over In terms of effect on unemployment stats, the above chart applies. Beneficiary Data Beneficiary Data in first chart is from Social Security Online. Here are additional charts from the site. Number of Beneficiaries by Type Number of Beneficiaries as of December 2011 A few more charts will put this in perspective. Civilian Labor Force Private Employment Quick Stats As of 2012-06 the civilian labor force was 155,163,000 As of 2012-06 there were 111,145,000 in the private workforce As of 2012-06 there were 56,174,538 collecting some form of SS or disability benefit Ratio of SS beneficiaries to private employment just passed the 50% mark (50.54%) Here is one final chart to ponder. Social Security Benefits in Dollars As of May 2012, the outlays are $756.9 billion annualized. Fewer worker relatively speaking, support more and more recipients with exponentially growing payments. This is supposed to work? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Car Maker Peugeot to Cut 8,000 Jobs, Close Plant; Shape of Things to Come Posted: 12 Jul 2012 09:37 AM PDT Citing a plunge in auto sales, Peugeot to Cut 8,000 Jobs, Close Plant  French carmaker Peugeot Citroen has set out plans to cut 8,000 jobs and close an assembly plant outside Paris as losses mount.  Last week, Peugeot said its first-half sales had fallen 13% amid a "profound crisis" in its eurozone markets. Peugeot's chairman, Phillipe Varin, said the situation was grave. "I am fully aware of the seriousness of today's announcement, as well as of the shock and emotions they will arouse in the company," he said in a statement. Unions described the announcement as a "declaration of war" and an "earthquake", the AFP press agency reported. The carmaker said it expected to report a loss for the first half of this year and to return to break-even by the end of 2014. Peugeot also this year entered into an alliance with GM of the US, under which GM takes a 7% stake in Peugeot, making GM the second-biggest shareholder in the French firm after the Peugeot family. The company said the effects of that deal would not be felt until after 2014. Closures and Firings The Aulnay plant near Paris, which employs 3,000 workers, would stop production in 2014. Another plant, at Rennes in western France, is set to shed 1,400 posts from the 5,600 it employs there. Another 3,600 jobs would be lost across all facilities in France. Press Release Here is the official press release: Peugeot Citroën Presents a Project to Reorganise Shape of Things to Come This is a start of what I expect to happen. For further discussion, please see Global Collapse In Auto Sales Coming Up. More importantly this may be the trigger for French president Francois Hollande to follow through with his Economically Insane Proposal: "Make Layoffs So Expensive For Companies That It's Not Worth It" Alternatively, it may be an act by Peugeot to fire workers while they still can. This is how I described the proposal in the preceding link: Four Things, All of Them Bad Mass layoffs will occur before the law passes. Companies will move any jobs they can overseas.    Ongoing, if it's difficult to fire people, companies will not hire them in the first place.  Corporate profits will collapse along with the stock market should the need to fire people arise. The proposal to force companies to sell plants rather than fire workers as outlined by Industry Minister Arnaud Montebourg and Labour Minister Michel Sapin is nothing short of economic insanity. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Mish on Capital Account: "Time for Krugman to Leave Ivory Tower for Real World" Posted: 12 Jul 2012 12:54 AM PDT I was on Capital Account once again on Wednesday with Lauren Lyster. The topics of discussion this time were the US and global recessions, auto sales, and Paul Krugman. Here is a video clip: Link if video does not play: Paul "King" Krugman knocked off his Ivory Tower as Fools Sack the Hill!  I regards to Krugman, I concluded with ... "His Keynesian thesis simply does not add up. We saw endless Keynesian and monetarist stimulus in Japan. It got them nothing. He learned nothing from Japan. He learned nothing from the great depression. Yet, because he has a Nobel prize, he can write a book and tell everyone what they should be doing. Man, this guy needs to get out of his ivory tower, Lauren, and get into the real world." Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.